🗓️ Black Friday is in 31 days (Fri, Nov 27, 2026)
"30% off sitewide" feels like the default Black Friday offer. For many small stores it quietly turns a profitable product into one that barely breaks even. Before you pick a number, run three quick calculations: profit per order at the sale price, the maximum safe discount, and how many extra orders the discount needs to pay for itself.
Profit per order = sale price − product cost − shipping and packaging you pay − payment fees − platform fees − ad cost per order
Use your real numbers. Card processing is often around 2.9% + $0.30 per order (check your Shopify Payments, Stripe, PayPal or Etsy statement). Marketplace fees vary: Etsy charges a transaction fee on each sale, and Amazon's referral fee depends on the category. For ad cost per order, divide last month's ad spend by orders, or use $0 if the sale is promoted only to your email list.
Decide the minimum profit you'll accept per order (say $3). Then:
Max discount = 1 − [ (product cost + shipping + fixed fee + ad cost per order + minimum profit) ÷ (1 − fee %) ] ÷ regular price
Anything deeper than that number means you're working for less than your minimum, or losing money.
Orders multiplier = profit per order at regular price ÷ profit per order at sale price
If the multiplier is 2.2, you need 2.2 times your normal orders just to make the same total profit. Be honest with yourself about whether your list and traffic can deliver that.
All three use 2.9% + $0.30 card fees, no platform fee, $5 of ad cost per order and a $3 minimum profit. These are the example rows built into the kit's calculator.
| Product | Price / costs | Profit at regular price | Planned discount | Profit at sale price | Orders needed | Max safe discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candle 8oz | $32; $7.50 cost; $4 shipping | $14.27 | 25% ($24.00) | $6.50 | 2.2× | 36% |
| Hoodie | $58; $21 cost; $6 shipping | $24.02 | 30% ($40.60) | $7.12 | 3.4× | 37% |
| Digital planner | $19; no cost or shipping | $13.15 | 40% ($11.40) | $5.77 | 2.3× | 55% |
Look at the hoodie. A 30% discount is "safe" by the max-discount rule, but it cuts profit per order from $24 to $7, so you'd need about 3.4 times the orders to earn the same money. That's why the max safe discount is a ceiling, not a target. Often 15–20% plus a free gift or free shipping over a threshold earns more.
On a $50 product with $15 cost and $6 shipping, compare the options on profit per order, not on how generous they sound:
Ads during BFCM get expensive. Know your limit:
Break-even CPA = average order value − product cost per order − shipping − fees. With a $65 average order, $20 product cost, $7 shipping and 2.9% + $0.30 fees, that's about $35.82 per order, which means a break-even ROAS of about 1.81×. If you want $5 profit per order after ads, your target CPA is $30.82 (ROAS about 2.11×). Pause any ad that runs above that for two days in a row.
The FTC's Guides Against Deceptive Pricing say a "former price" should be a real price you offered in good faith for a reasonably substantial period, not one raised in November so the discount looks bigger. Record your regular prices now. This is general information, not legal advice.
Once you know your numbers, plan the sends with our 2026 marketing calendar and email templates.
The Black Friday Profit Kit 2026 has all 14 emails with full bodies and send dates, 16 SMS texts, 30 social captions, Google & Meta ad copy, 40 AI prompts, the 6-week checklist and an 8-tab profit calculator (Excel / Google Sheets).
🚀 Launch price: $19 for the first week, through Sun, Nov 1. It goes to $39 after Nov 1.
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Published October 27, 2026 by LUSRODRI, LLC. Examples are illustrations; your numbers will differ. Compliance notes are general information, not legal advice.